The recent Parliamentary elections of 17 August 2015 held in Sri Lanka, was closely watched not only by India, but other major powers like the US, China, European Union (EU), Norway and many others as well. This Parliamentary election came eight months after the Presidential elections held in January this year. These two electoral results inflicted dual defeat on the then sitting and strong President Mahinda Rajapaksha of Sri Lankan Freedom Party (SLFP). The defeat was imposed on Rajapaksha by his former Cabinet colleague and a prominent member of SLFP, Maitripala Sirisena with the help of a temporary coalition with opposition parties – mainly, United National Party (UNP) led by Ranil Wickremesinghe. In the January elections, Sirisena was elected President and Wickremesinghe was sworn in as the Prime Minister (PM).
However, the defeated presidential candidate had told his staff that he would come back. Thus, Mahinda Rajapaksha entered the Parliamentary poll of 17 January 2015. As still a popular Sri Lankan leader, with considerable following among Buddhist clergy and youth with nationalist sentiments, he had contested against Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe. In this closely contested Parliamentary election, though Rajapaksha could win his seat as a Member of Parliament (MP), his coalition could win only 95 seats in a Parliament of 225 seats, thus shattering his dream of becoming the Prime Minister.
Reality of Rajapaksha rule
How did a very shrewd former President get himself defeated twice? Rajapaksha ruled almost for 10 years with an iron hand. He was the hero of the victory over the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Ealam (LTTE) in 2009, which was fighting for the creation of a separate Tamil state. He brought peace from conflicts, terror and war. The economy was also doing well with a 7 % growth. Yet, he suffered two consecutive defeats. His defeat in the Presidential elections in January was described variously as ‘stunning’, ‘surprising’ etc. What explains this ignominy imposed on him?
A section of Sri Lanka, with sufficient examples, saw him building up a “dynastic democracy”. His one brother, Gotabaya was Secretary of Defence. Another brother, Basil Rajapaksha was the Minister for Economic Development, and a third brother, Chamal, was the Speaker of Parliament. Members from his extended family were appointed to various other state positions.
Dynastic democracy was seen as moving to become “Dynastic Dictatorship”. Rajapaksha turned Parliamentary government into Presidential, concentrating most of the powers in his hands. Many powers of the PM were taken over by the President. Worse still, he got the Constitution amended to abolish the two-term limit on holding the Presidency. In January 2015 if he was reelected, it would have been his third term! People lived in fear of being eliminated if they dared to be critical of his regime.
Once peace returned to the country, liberal groups were able to see violations of human rights under Rajapaksha. During the last years of the civil war, more than 40,000 people lost their lives. The Tamil minorities suffered the most as the army in many cases took over their land; they lived in perpetual fear. On the other hand, there were no signs of devolution of powers to Tamil areas in East and North, which was long agreed to by Sri Lanka in the 1980s.
Importance of the Parliamentary elections
In the August election, Rajapaksha’s United People’s Freedom Alliance (UPFA) secured only 95 seats in a Parliament of 225, while Sirisena’s United National Front for Good Governance gained 106, short of seven seats for a simple majority. The moderate Tamil National Alliance secured 16 seats. Its leader R. Sampanthan has been appointed as the leader of opposition, as Rajapaksha’s supporters were unable to decide whether to sit in opposition or support Sirisena, as he is technically still a member of SLFP.
The defeat of Rajapaksha for Sri Lanka, globally for India and for all those who love democracy, is a double blessing.
Rajapaksha had already enjoyed two consecutive terms; his running for the third term itself was seen as a threat to democratic traditions. Soon after his defeat in January elections, Rajapaksha had tried to seek police and army help to retain power, which also shows his anti-democratic trait. His efforts to become the PM were seen as continuation of his efforts to establish a ‘Rajapaksha dynasty’.
On the other hand, it is not merely a theoretical satisfaction. In a short period of eight months, President Sirisena has brought back the two-term limitation on holding of presidency; he has already transferred more powers to PM Wickremesinghe. Technically though, President Sirisena continues in the SLFP which claims to be a socialistic party and the PM is the leader of the UNP which is the ‘right of the centre’ party. Yet, the two have managed to provide good governance to Sri Lanka – ironically, Rajapaksha of SLFP is the common enemy!
People are now free of fear; the government has asked people to freely express themselves. The President has pledged to create Domestic Councils to protect and promote human rights under the guidance of the UN Human Rights Council. In words and deed, he has moved closer to India: President Sirisena visited India on 16 February, while the Indian PM was in Colombo on 13 March.
Implications for Indian foreign policy
What are the implications for the Indian foreign policy? The present government is favourably inclined towards India. On the other hand, relations of Sri Lanka with India under Rajapaksha were rather hostile. The electoral defeat of Rajapaksha that denied him power as the PM is a positive gain to Indian interests. His electoral victory would have made him anti-India far more visibly and on more issues. Soon after losing the presidential elections of 8 January this year, Rajapaksha had blamed Indian external intelligence agency – RAW (Research and Analysis Wing), prominently, and intelligence agencies of other countries like the US and Norway for his defeat.
This state of affairs existed, mainly because of two areas of vital interest to India: One, he had pursued a policy of using the China card against Indian security in various ways. He had permitted China to develop Hambantota as a strategic port for its use. China had for long decided to pursue a policy of encircling India – popularly called by the Americans as ‘a string of pearls’. Similarly, Rajapaksha had given ‘Sovereign Territory’ to China within Colombo Port City (CPC) project assigned to Chinese contractors. The CPC project is under review as PM Wickremesinghe said recently: “Whatever Rajapaksha wanted will not happen. There will be no “sovereign territory” of China within CPC”.
Rajapaksha also ruthlessly eliminated the V. Prabhakaran-led LTTE in 2009, in which India remained neutral. After the return of peace he did not take any steps to meet the Tamil aspirations for genuine autonomy. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s concern for the Indian diaspora globally is well-known. He has positively broadened the concept of the diaspora in his October 2012 speech on Indian foreign policy. He had then said that the Indian concern for non-resident Indians (NRIs) should also be extended to Tamils in Sri Lanka. Hence, there are all signs of finding a resolution to the Tamil problem in Sri Lanka under the current President.
Another good example of India-Sri Lanka cooperation for mutual benefit comes in the fact that during President Sirisena’s visit to India, the two nations agreed to cooperate in the area of nuclear energy. After the US-India Civil Nuclear Deal, India chose Sri Lanka within the South Asian region to sign the first ever civil nuclear deal for generating nuclear energy. Interestingly, Rajapaksha had raised concerns of radiation from Indian nuclear reactors in Kudankulam in Tamil Nadu.
Conclusion
Running a government with uncertain majority in the Parliament, with a person of Rajapaksha’s background inside the Parliament, is not an easy task. Already small leftist parties who were with Sirisena’s coalition formed during January Presidential elections are leaving him, and are likely to join the coalition of Rajapaksha or form a separate coalition.
But on the basis of their record so far, it can be said with reasonable certainty that the current team of President and PM is sure to complete their term of five years. India cannot expect that Sri Lanka will switch to the Indian camp completely. There are others whom President Sirisena is likely to turn to like the US, and Japan, in addition to China and even to Pakistan. It is better for India if Sri Lanka as a small power, maintains the goodwill of as many countries in the comity of nations as possible, rather than have a dependency relationship with China.
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P.M. Kamath
Dr. Kamath, formerly, Professor of Politics, University of Bombay, is currently, Hon. Director of VPM’s Centre for International Studies (Regd.), affiliated to Mumbai University. He is an Adjunct Professor in Department of Geopolitics and International Relations. While teaching in the University, he guided a Ph. D dissertation on Terrorism as an instrument of Foreign Policy and an M. Phil thesis on Sri Lankan Ethnic Crisis.
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